Early Playoff Picture (Part 1)

Although the playoffs are not until June, each conference is beginning to take shape. So let us break down the postseason picture in the West to get a better idea of what to expect.

The Favorite- Oklahoma City Thunder

Kevin Durant has been doing amazing things this year, and if LeBron James had not been playing out of his mind, Durant would be the unanimous MVP. Russel Westbrook, the question mark coming into the season, has cut down his turnovers and been able to mesh more cohesively with Durant and company than last season. The Thunder's weakness is they could get pushed around by a team with a dominant big man (see the 2011 Western Conference Finals against Dallas), but Durant and Westbrook should be able to overcome any weakness with their dominant scoring. I would be shocked to see the Thunder lose before the NBA Finals.

This dynamic duo should lead the Thunder into the NBA Finals.

The Pesky Veterans- San Antonio Spurs

These guys will not go away. With a team average age of 57 (I didn't do the math), the Spurs continue to find ways to dominate in the regular season and get a high seed in the playoffs. The most interesting aspect for the Spurs is the trade for Stephen Jackson. I am not sure if Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Jackson can keep it up for a seven-game series, but if they can, they could give the Thunder a run for their money.

Age has yet to affect these three Spurs veterans.

The Hollywood Dramas- Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers

Both the Lakers and Clippers have extreme positives and negatives. The Lakers have been in a groove since the acquisition of Ramon Sessions. The Clippers are a high-flying, scoring machine. But the Lakers have been beaten by inferior teams and have looked slow during some games. The Clippers seemingly imploded last week, cannot make free-throws and turn the ball over in critical possessions. The two LA teams will make for fun drama in the playoffs.

These big men will battle for their teams come June.

The Dark Horse- Memphis Grizzlies

I would venture to guess the casual NBA fan has no idea that Memphis is currently the projected six seed in the West. The Grizzlies have quietly won games all season, and are starting to get healthy at the right team. Memphis has proven it can beat any team, but they have alos had recent losses to lowly teams like Toronto. With Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph dominating the post, Mike Conley running the offense, Tony Allen continuing to be one of the best perimeter defenders and Rudy Gay scoring everywhere on the court, Memphis is my team to watch in the West.

The Grizzlies need to rally together and build some momentum going into the playoffs.

The High-Energy, High-Risk Teams- Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets

Only two of these teams will make the playoffs. The Nuggets are the top scoring team in the NBA, and, with the return of Wilson Chandler from China, will probably have enough to get into the postseason, but I doubt they will go far. Along with their top offense, the Nuggets have the worst defense, giving up 103 points per game. The Jazz shot off to a fast start to the season, but have slowed down. Utah is one of the most balanced teams in the NBA, but when Al Jefferson is shut down -- which is no easy task -- the Jazz usually get outscored. I think Utah will be the odd-man-out at the season's end. The Rockets are currently on the outside looking in. But they have started to gather momentum, and when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup, Houston should be able to squeak into the eight seed.

Trade Deadline Recap

As the trade deadline came to a close Thursday afternoon, six teams made moves to shake up the NBA.

The first trade of the week sent Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Golden State Warriors for Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut. This move broke up the Stephen Curry/Monta Ellis hellacious backcourt, but brings the talented yet injury prone Andrew Bogut to Oakland. If Bogut can remain healthy, a Curry to Bogut connection would be something the Warriors could build on.

The Bucks were able to get rid of Stephen Jackson, someone who had never fit into the Milwaukee system. Where this trade seems odd to me is the pairing of Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Both guards demand the ball and score tons of points. However, if they can develop a post presence to grab the misses Jennings and Ellis throw up the Bucks could have some strong potential.

Milwaukee hopes Ellis can lead them back to the playoffs.

The Warriors, however, did not hold on to Jackson long. They traded Jackson to San Antonio for Richard Jefferson and the Spurs' 2012 first-round pick. The draft pick is probably a more valuable asset for the rebuilding Warriors, but Jefferson is going to cost them a few extra dollars. San Antonio, on the other hand, saves some money and Greg Popovich reunites with Jackson. If Jackson can mesh with Pop and the team, the Spurs -- as much as I hate to admit it -- are going to be serious title contenders.

The last time Tim Duncan and Jackson were on the same team, they won a championship.

The Lakers finally adressed their point guard needs by trading for Ramon Sessions. Los Angeles sent Cleveland benchwarmers Luke Walton and Jason Kapono, the Laker's 2012 draft pick and the rights to swap the Heat's 2013 pick (currently in the Cavalier's possession) with LA. Sessions played valuable minutes in his first game with the Lakers and should be able to give Kobe Bryant the boost he needed. As a Laker-hater, this trade baffles me. The Cavs got next to nothing for an extraordinary back up point guard who only had two years on his contract and the Cavs did not have to pay him a lot (about $4.3 million a year). The Lakers get a steal to replace the worn-out Derek Fisher and can sit inconsistent Steve Blake on the bench.

The Portland Trail Blazers demolished their foundation and are in the rebuilding process. Portland traded aging starters Marcus Camby to the Rockets and Gerald Wallace to the Nets. They received Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams and a first round pick from the Nets and Johnny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet and a second round pick from the Rockets. Portland finally waived Greg Oden after the first round pick struggled through years of injury and no productivity. The Blazers look to rework their team around all-star LaMarcus Aldridge.

The Wizards got rid of their not-top-ten highlight machine in JaVale McGee and Nick Young. Washington acquired Nene from the Nuggets, and they hope to give John Wall a weapon on the inside. I'm not sure this was the best move for the Wizards. While McGee and Young were problematic, McGee is long and athletic and could have been a future contributor. If the Wizards could have gotten a better draft pick (they only obtained a future pick of an unspecified round), this trade could have made a more significant impact on the future of the Wizard organization.

The Nuggets, who traded for McGee, are looking to build a younger team, and they are doing that by swapping Nene for McGee. The Clippers traded a backup forward to Washington for Young. The Clips are trying to find a perimeter scorer to replace the injured Chauncey Billups, and Young may be the perfect fit.

Young teams with bright futures

During a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves' point guard Ricky Rubio tore his ACL, and Rubio will not step on the hardwood again this season. 

The Timberwolves are one of several young teams in the NBA who are making changes to be competitive in the next few years.

Rubio's loss was a huge momentum burst for the Wolves, but Minnesota still has the pieces to make the playoffs next year. Kevin Love is on the verge of being an All-Star. There is a handful of valuable, young talent (Wesley Johnson, Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Anthony Randolph) who can be traded for more pieces or developed into valuable contributors.

The Timberwolves will have plenty to celebrate about in the coming years.

I expect Minnesota to be a six or seven seed next year, and with good front office moves, the Wolves could be competing for a title within five years.

The team that benefits most from the Rubio injury is the New Orleans Hornets. The Hornets acquired the Wolves' first round draft pick in the Chris Paul trade and hope Minnesota's record drops due to the injury.

The Hornets, armed with two potential top-ten picks, should be an exciting, young team next year. The most sensible picks for the Hornets are a power forward (Anthony Davis if they win the lottery, if not, Thomas Robinson or Jared Sullinger) and whoever is the best available player with Minnesota's pick.

Eric Gordon hopes to have young talent by his side when he returns from injury.

Armed with two stars and a roster of solid defensive players, the Hornets will be competitive in the West next season and will probably be in the playoffs in two years.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be dangerous next year. Kyrie Irving is phenomenal and Tristan Thompson is a rising star.

When these two rookies get experience and wing players who can score, the Cavaliers will not be far from title contention. 

Irving and Thompson appear to have a bright future playing with each other.

Their current problem is a lack of depth and scoring outside of Irving and Antawn Jamison, but one or two drafts and smart moves in free agency should keep the Cavs competitive in the East. 

If I were the Cavs' general manager, I would have traded Jamison this season. With an expiring contract, Jamison would have been a valuable trade asset and would have fetched a good price (draft picks and/or young scorers). Jamison is on the decline of his career, and the Cavaliers need to lean on young players to build for the future.

The Dwight Howard Dilemma

Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic are in a trade stalemate that has the entire basketball world swirling with trade ideas.

Trade rumors have kept Howard frustrated all season.

While I hope Howard stays in Orlando, and the Magic administration should do whatever it takes to keep him, I fired up the NBA Trade Machine on ESPN.com to figure out possible trade scenarios for the Magic.

Howard to the Nets for Brook Lopez, Mehmet Okur and DeShawn Stevenson

As soon as the NBA lockout ended and Dwight Howard trade speculation began, most experts pointed to  the New Jersey Nets as the landing point for Howard. If the Nets and Magic agree to this trade, it helps both teams.

Howard looks pretty good in New Jersey red.

The Nets team up Dwight Howard and Deron Williams as they move to Brooklyn, and the Magic get Lopez, an up-and-coming center who they can build their new team around. If Okur can get his game back, he would be a valuable back up center with a propensity to shoot 3's, so he would be a fitting piece in Orlando's rebuilding puzzle. Stevenson makes the trip to Orlando as well, but, while he is a solid jump-shooter, he is mainly dealt to make the numbers work.

Howard and Hedo Turkoglu to the Hawks for Josh Smith and Al Horoford, and the Hawks trade Marvin Williams for Stephen Jackson.

This trade is more ambitious and unlikely, but it would shake things up in the East.

Atlanta fans would love to see more of this.

The Hawks, with Howard and Turkoglu, would become instant title contenders. The combination of Joe Johnson's shooting and Howard on the inside would be hard for any team, even the Miami Heat, to defend.

The Magic would replace Howard with Horoford, who is a borderline all-star when he is healthy. Adding Josh Smith would give Orlando a young high-flyer who could sell tickets and be a winning player while the Magic continue to build a contending team.

The last part of the trade was not necessary, but Howard has hinted that he wants to play with Jackson, and Jackson has not been cooperating in Milwaukee. Marvin Williams would be a better fit in Milwaukee than Jackson, and it would give the Bucks some salary room.

While I was tinkering with the trade machine, I wanted to get a trade to keep Howard in Orlando.

Steve Nash, Grant Hill and Hakim Warrick to the Magic for Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick

Another ambitious trade, but everyone wins in this situation.

Howard would love to have Nash passing him the ball, instead of having to guard him

Nash and Hill join forces with Howard for one or two last runs at a title. Howard gets all-star players on his team, so he would stick around in Orlando.

The Suns get a younger point guard in Nelson, a young shooter in Redick and a experienced veteran in Turkoglu. Phoenix would save a few dollars and position themselves to make a championship run in the near future.

I urge Dwight Howard to stay in Orlando, mainly because I have a bad feeling he will end up in Los Angeles wearing purple and yellow. But for this to happen, the Magic will have to get someone like Nash to keep Howard living in Disney World.